“The Yamuna has been strangled by encroachments, corruption, and hollow promises. When it reclaims its course, millions will pay the price”

We have all seen the haunting images, the Yamuna spilling over into Delhi, Noida, Faridabad, and Agra roads submerged, Metro tracks under threat, apartments marooned, and entire neighborhoods brought to a standstill. For the past several monsoons, images of the Yamuna swelling over its banks have dominated our news cycles. In 2023, when floodwaters reached the gates of the Red Fort and spilled into Civil Lines, the city caught a glimpse of the river’s potential fury. But here’s the chilling truth,what we have seen so far is merely a trailer. The Yamuna’s full wrath is not a matter of if, but when.

Having lived in Delhi for over two decades, I have witnessed the Yamuna overflow its banks multiple times. Each incident reinforces one truth,when a river reclaims its course, humans can do little but step aside. What makes Delhi’s situation uniquely dangerous is that decades of political negligence, unplanned urbanization, and hollow promises have turned the Yamuna floodplain into a ticking time bomb.

This is not a natural calamity in the making. It is a man-made one authored collectively by the Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

A River Choked by Successive Regimes

The Congress ruled Delhi for 15 years, overseeing a real estate boom that steadily devoured the Yamuna’s floodplain. From the Commonwealth Games Village to housing societies and temples, construction was allowed on ecologically sensitive land. Despite expert warnings, the government treated the floodplain as free real estate. By the time Congress exited power, the Yamuna had been squeezed into a narrow, polluted channel, stripped of its natural buffers.

The Aam Aadmi Party, which came to power in 2015 with promises of clean governance, fared no better. In 2017, AAP declared that Delhi would have a “clean Yamuna by 2017.” When that failed, the deadline shifted to 2019, then 2023, and most famously, Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal pledged a “clean Yamuna by 2025.” Yet the river remained a toxic black drain, frothing with industrial waste and sewage. The floodplain remained choked with encroachments, and illegal settlements were left untouched for fear of political backlash.

The BJP, meanwhile, has used the Yamuna more as an electoral slogan than an environmental priority. The Yamuna Action Plan, first launched in the 1990s with Japanese aid, has consumed over ₹1,500 crore across multiple phases. Every election, BJP leaders promise to “revive the Yamuna” or turn it into a Sabarmati style riverfront. Yet, the river remains filthy, its floodplain more compromised than ever.

The truth is stark. Congress ignored, AAP procrastinated, and BJP postured. The result is a river that is angrier, dirtier, and more dangerous than at any point in Delhi’s modern history.

Warnings We Chose to Ignore

The National Green Tribunal (NGT) has sounded the alarm repeatedly. After the devastating floods of 2023, it warned that constructions on the Yamuna floodplain not only endangered residents but also destabilized the river’s ecology.

As far back as 2015, the NGT had prohibited new constructions and ordered authorities to identify and demarcate illegal structures. Nearly a decade later, that process remains incomplete. Governments have dragged their feet, reluctant to confront the political costs of demolishing encroachments or halting projects backed by influential interests.

The NGT had to intervene again in August 2024 and January 2025, summoning officials and reiterating its orders. When the judiciary must repeatedly remind governments to enforce the basics, it is clear the political establishment has abandoned its responsibility.

Environmental experts have long warned of this danger. As one ecologist bluntly put it:

“A floodplain is nature’s insurance policy. We have cancelled that policy in Delhi. Now, when the river reclaims its space, the cost will be unbearable.”

The Yamuna’s Journey and Its Wrath

The Yamuna rises from the Yamunotri Glacier in Uttarakhand, winding through Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, and Delhi before merging with the Ganga at Prayagraj’s Triveni Sangam. Along its 1,400 kilometer course, it passes through some of India’s most populous cities,Noida, Mathura, Agra, Firozabad, Etawah, and Prayagraj.

After the Ganga, the Yamuna touches the maximum number of major urban centers, making it not just a river, but a lifeline. But when it overflows, it becomes a weapon of mass destruction.

Over the last few years, the Yamuna has been reclaiming its path. Each spell of intense monsoon rain or sudden upstream dam release is a reminder,a river never forgets its natural course. The floods of July 2023, when the Yamuna rose to a record 208.66 meters, were only a preview of what could happen on a larger scale.

History’s Lessons Forgotten

Rivers have long memories. For years, Delhiites treated the Yamuna as little more than a sewage canal. Urban planners or rather, political leaders pretending to be planners permitted the construction of metro lines, housing colonies, and even farmhouses on the floodplain. Every structure there is a provocation. In recent years, the Yamuna has begun to respond. The floods of 2023 are not anomalies, they are warnings.

Delhi’s worst recorded flood came in 1978, when the Yamuna swelled to 207.49 meters, affecting over 2 million people. Again in 1995, thousands were forced to evacuate. In 2010, heavy rains and dam releases forced 20,000 evacuations. In 2023, torrential rains upstream led to the river touching 208.66 meters the highest ever recorded. Traffic collapsed, Metro services halted, and schools shut.

Yet, despite these recurring disasters, Delhi has not prepared for the “big one. Compare this to the Kosi disaster of 2008, when the river in Bihar shifted course, displacing 3 million people; the Krishna floods of 2009, which rendered half a million homeless; the Kerala deluge of 2018 ( a classical case of a clueless Minister and ridiculous dam management), which displaced over a million; and the Chennai floods of 2015, when unregulated development and dam mismanagement submerged a metropolis, causing over ₹15,000 crore in damages. Each of these disasters showed how rivers can cripple entire regions when ignored. With its 30 million residents, Delhi is far more vulnerable.

What a Mega Flood Could Look Like

Now picture this, Yamuna breaches 210 meters. The consequences would be a disaster of biblical proportions

• Old Delhi, including Red Fort, Jama Masjid, and Yamuna Bazar, under water.
• Civil Lines and the Chief Minister’s residence inundated.
• Connaught Place and Rajiv Chowk Metro station crippled as underground lines flood.
• IGI Airport facing crippling waterlogging, isolating the capital from the world.
• Posh colonies and slums scrambling for shelter side by side

Even if only 10% of Delhi’s population were displaced, that would mean 3 million people on the move more than the population of Jaipur or Lucknow.

The Domino Effect

A mega flood is not just about water; it is about collapse:

• Humanitarian Crisis, Relief camps overcrowded, epidemics of cholera, typhoid, dengue, and malaria.
• Economic Paralysis, Metro services suspended, airports shut, highways submerged, daily losses running into hundreds of crores.
• Political Fallout, Blame games between AAP, BJP, and Congress while citizens wade through waist-deep water.
• Environmental Havoc, Toxic Yamuna sludge mixed with sewage and industrial waste spreading across Delhi and NCR, poisoning land and groundwater.

It would be a governance disaster as much as a natural one.

Why We’re Not Ready

Delhi’s flood control infrastructure is a bad joke. Embankments are weak, stormwater drains clogged, and evacuation drills non existent.

• Congress ignored the problem for decades while greenlighting construction.
• AAP promised clean rivers but failed to stop new encroachments.
• BJP allocated crores to Yamuna clean-up plans but delivered little beyond slogans.

The result,a capital city exposed to devastation.

What Must Be DoneIf We Care

If Delhi is to avoid drowning, the steps are clear:

• Policy Enforcement Implement NGT directives. Demolish illegal floodplain structures, no matter how politically inconvenient.
• Interstate Coordination Dam releases from Haryana, Uttarakhand, and Himachal must be managed with real-time coordination.
• Infrastructure Strengthen embankments, modernize drainage, build wetlands and reservoirs.
• Community Preparedness Flood drills, evacuation routes, shelters with medical support, real-time citizen alerts.
• Long-Term Planning Restore the Yamuna’s ecology. Integrate climate resilience into Delhi’s master plan.

How the World Prepares and Delhi Does Not

Delhi’s helplessness is not inevitable. Other countries facing far greater river threats have invested in world-class defenses

• London – The Thames Barrier (1982) protects against tidal surges and catastrophic floods.
• Netherlands –Delta Works, built after the 1953 North Sea flood, combines dams, storm surge barriers, and dikes.
• Japan. Underground flood diversion tunnels in Tokyo can channel an Olympic-sized swimming pool’s worth of water every second.
• New York. Post-Hurricane Sandy (2012), accelerated seawall construction, resilient infrastructure, and evacuation planning.

Delhi, by contrast, has weak embankments, clogged drains, and piecemeal “action plans.” The difference is not resources but priorities. Where others chose foresight, Delhi’s rulers chose neglect.

The Final Reckoning

The Yamuna has nourished Delhi for centuries, but she will not tolerate endless abuse. Congress allowed encroachments in the name of growth. AAP has kicked the can down the road with shifting deadlines. BJP has treated “clean Yamuna” as an electoral slogan while squandering taxpayer money on failed schemes.

If or rather, when a mega flood hits Delhi, it will not just be nature’s fury at play. It will be the cumulative failure of political will.

The thought of the Yamuna rising to swallow the Red Fort, Civil Lines, Connaught Place, and IGI Airport should terrify us all. But terror alone won’t save us. Political accountability, tough decisions, and genuine action just might.

The Yamuna mega flood will surely come. The only question is whether Delhi’s rulers will act before it does or after